A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

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Log in through your institution. We evaluate the ability of formal rules to establish U. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. Using a new "real-time" dataset of coincident monthly variables, we find that both approaches would have accurately identified the NBER business cycle chronology had they been in use over the past 30 years, with the Markov-switching model most closely matching the NBER dates.

Further, both approaches, and particularly the Markov-switching model, yielded ificant improvement over the NBER in the speed with which business cycle troughs were identified. It serves as a unique meeting place for applied economists, econometricians, and statisticians developing appropriate empirical methodologies for a broad range of topics in business and economics.

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A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

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A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods